Research: Europe increasingly targeted by Russian sabotage
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has been conducting a covert sabotage campaign against Europe. The ‘Bewaken en Beveiligen’ (Surveillance and Security) project team at Leiden University has investigated the scale of these operations and compiled its findings in the report Russian Operations Against Europe.
The report provides a detailed overview of the variety and intensity of attacks, which extend beyond cyberattacks and disinformation to include physical sabotage of critical infrastructure and political assassinations. Over the past three years, these operations have increased in both scale and intensity, employing ever more disruptive tactics. Their objective is to destabilise Europe and cut off Ukraine from crucial support.
Increase in operations and intensity
The research reveals a sharp rise in sabotage operations since 2022, peaking in 2024. That year, Russia targeted critical infrastructure such as energy supplies, water networks, and civil aviation. Recorded incidents included attacks on DHL cargo planes and an assassination attempt on the CEO of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. Professor of Terrorism and Political Violence Bart Schuurman explains: ‘What we are witnessing is a clear escalation of Russian tactics. These are no longer limited to cyberattacks or propaganda but now include actions with direct consequences for physical infrastructure and civilian safety.’
The analysis shows that Russia is escalating its efforts to destabilise European nations. While previous operations mainly focused on disinformation and cyberattacks, recent activities demonstrate a shift towards hybrid warfare, including physical sabotage and political assassinations.
Geographical shift and intensified targeting
Another striking pattern is the shift in Russian operations towards Western Europe. While in previous years, Eastern European countries, such as the Baltic states, were the primary targets, in 2024, Germany and France have become the new priorities. This suggests that Russia is expanding its activities into the ever more members of the European Union, highlighting the urgency of a coordinated European response.
Systematic documentation of incidents
This research adopts a systematic approach to mapping incidents of Russian sabotage and subversion in Europe. For the first time, a comprehensive dataset has been compiled to document these incidents. The dataset provides valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and the broader public, illustrating both the geographical spread of the incidents and the diversity of tactics employed. From economic sabotage to the disruption of critical infrastructure, Russia is deploying a wide range of methods to achieve its objectives.
Implications for Europe
The research underscores the need for a coordinated response to hybrid threats. Many countries remain insufficiently prepared for the complexity and scale of Russian operations. Schuurman emphasises: ‘Europe must invest in resilience and develop a joint strategy to effectively combat sabotage and hybrid warfare.’
Cooperation for European security
The project team hopes that the publication of this research will spark a broad discussion on the Russian threat and the necessary measures to strengthen Europe's resilience. It highlights the urgency of a unified European approach to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare.
The findings represent a crucial first step in understanding the scale and impact of Russian operations against Europe. The raw data from the study is publicly available, and an infographic visually presents the key findings. The research has received extensive media coverage, with articles in NRC, De Volkskrant, Trouw, EenVandaag and Foreign Policy.
This is a call to policymakers to work strategically together and take the necessary steps to protect vital infrastructure and public services, ensuring that Europe can effectively defend itself against future sabotage and hybrid warfare.