COP29: Why should we care and what can we expect?
Climate change is affecting all areas of human life. 2024 has been the hottest year on record and natural disasters are becoming increasingly frequent around the globe. Every year since 1995, national delegations come together to address the climate crisis through the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), also known as COP. This year, the COP29 is taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from the 11 to 22 November.
Dr. Shiming Yang is a university lecturer and researcher at Leiden University for environmental politics and international political economy. She is also part of the Global Transformations and Governance Challenges Interdisciplinary Programme (GTGC).
What is the relevance of COP29?
COP29 takes place in the hottest year on record, once again. We have witnessed multiple heat waves, typhons and other extreme weather that have caused massive economic and human losses across the world. Yet, we are not on track to limit global warming to 1.5ºC. The UNFCCC COP29 is is arguably the best indicator of international cooperation and confidence in this planetary crisis. This is where states determine their role and responsibilities in the climate crisis.
This year, the conference is being held in Baku, Azerbaijan, with total attendance half of its predecessor, COP28 in Dubai. The conference must navigate a growing lack of confidence in the UNFCCC process, while addressing a planetary level concern that requires the support of the international community.
What are the main discussion points for this year's meeting?
There are several key topics for COP29. The top priority is the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations agreed to set up this environmental financial mechanism by 2025 to ensure sufficient financial support climate change action in developing countries – which are the most affected by the environmental crisis.
In 2009, at the Copenhagen Summit, member states agreed to allocate USD100 billion per year for climate finance, but this promise was delayed or never met by some measures. This severely eroded trust from developing countries in the UNFCCC process . The negotiation of the NCQG, therefore, is extremely important to regain countries’ confidence in UNFCCC process, sepecially as the USA is likely to drop the ball again in the Trump 2.0 administration. The central aspects of the NCQG that need to be finalized are which countries will contribute how much, , recipient eligibility, and the scope of activities that can be financed with this mechanism.
Another major discussion point is the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, also known as the Loss-and-Damage Fund. It was approved at COP in 2022 and became operational in 2023, with its director being appointed in September 2024. COP29 is tasked to finalize details before funding is allocated starting 2025. Relatedly, this COP will review the first joint report of the Warsaw International Mechanism and the Santiago Network for loss and damage.
Additionally, February 2025 is the deadline for countries to submit the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as stated in the Paris Agreement. COP 29 will be a place to help states determine their NDCs.
Finally, the conference is also tasked with defining carbon market rules.
Why are some people calling this year's meeting the 'Finance COP'?
As mentioned above, the focus of the COP is on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), the new international climate finance commitment, and the Loss-and-Damage fund. Climate finance is the foundation for international actions on climate change, and it is essential to have an acceptable and credible NCQG to prevent further decline of trust between rich countries and the global South.
How could COP be improved for the coming years?
As time is running out, the slow negotiation process at COP has become a major obstacle in climate actions. COP should no longer be the place for climate negotiations or a venue for symbolic statements. Instead, it should strengthen its role in mediating and facilitating negotiations, including the use of informal forums and innovative dialogues, to avoid long-lasting and divisive discussions. It should also delegate, decentralize, and coordinate negotiation tasks with other international institutions, including multilateral environmental agreements (such as the Montreal Protocol on Ozone, UN Convention on Biodiversity, Minamata Convention, etc.) and international organizations (such as the World Trade Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization, etc.) to reduce sectoral emissions efficiently.
Last year Pacific Islanders were deeply critical of COP 28, as they claim the agreement was not 'conducive to their survival'. Do you think the conference is doing enough to integrate small states' needs?
COP is not doing enough to ensure the survival of these islands. There are initiatives to help the survival of these islands’ inhabitants, but a lot more needs to be done, including but not limited to the loss-and-damage fund, which hopefully will start funding projects in 2025. Other sources of funding will play a pivotal role too, such as the Green Climate Fund. Of course, it should be kept in mind that there are many issues at COP competing for attention, but it is also true that small islanders don’t always get sufficient attention. An additional challenge for this issue is that there is no an international concensus on what a solution should look like.
Text: Martina Prieto Beghelli